eSIM Weekly Briefing: Foldables, Market Forecasts, and the Carrier Showdown Continues

Coverage Period: December 6–12, 2025

TL;DR: IDC projects Apple's iPhone Fold will capture 22% of the foldable market and 34% of its value in year one. New research pegs the global eSIM market at $5.8 billion by 2030. T-Mobile filed its legal response to AT&T's lawsuit ahead of the December 16 hearing, while Digi International became one of the first to launch an SGP.32-compliant IoT eSIM accessory.

iPhone Fold Poised to Reshape Foldable Market

The biggest eSIM story this week comes from market forecasters sizing up Apple's foldable ambitions.

IDC released projections on December 9 forecasting Apple's first foldable iPhone will capture over 22% of unit share and a staggering 34% of market value in its debut year—driven by an expected $2,400 average price point. The firm expects the overall foldable smartphone market to grow 30% year-over-year in 2026, up from 6% in prior forecasts.

"The launch of Apple's first foldable iPhone will mark a turning point for the foldable segment," said Francisco Jeronimo, IDC's vice president of client devices. "Apple tends to be a catalyst for mainstream adoption of new categories."

Earlier in the week, ET News reported Apple had ordered 22 million OLED panels from Samsung Display—implying production targets of around 10 million finished devices, 30% higher than initial industry expectations. However, Samsung Display's communications team subsequently denied the specific figures, calling the report inaccurate, though the original article was deleted before clarification.

What's certain: the iPhone Fold will be eSIM-only. Chinese leaker Instant Digital confirmed on Weibo that Apple's foldable has "a great probability of not having a SIM card slot"—a necessity given the ultra-thin design described as "two titanium iPhone Airs side by side."

Separately, Counterpoint Research reported that Q3 2025 marked the highest quarterly foldable shipment volume ever, with 14% year-over-year growth. The firm expects book-style foldables to dominate over clamshell designs going forward, with Samsung Display's panel market share expected to climb past 50%.

AT&T vs T-Mobile: Positions Harden Before December 16 Hearing

The carrier legal battle intensified as both sides prepared for next week's court date.

T-Mobile filed its formal opposition on December 8, arguing AT&T's request for a restraining order is moot because the contested scraping functionality was removed four days before AT&T initiated legal action. Since November 30, T-Mobile's Easy Switch tool has only allowed AT&T customers to upload bill PDFs or manually enter plan information.

"The conduct AT&T challenges is not occurring and AT&T has not objected to the operation of Easy Switch in its current form," T-Mobile stated in court filings.

AT&T isn't backing down. A spokesperson told Mobile World Live: "We appreciate T-Mobile says they will stop recklessly scraping customer data for now. We ask that they commit—on the record—to never employing these unlawful tactics that put customers and intellectual property rights at risk again."

At the UBS Global Technology Conference on December 9, AT&T CEO John Stankey acknowledged T-Mobile's approach had merit in concept. "Most of you in this room, if I said, 'It's time to go through your two-year cycle and get a new device, what's your choice? Do you want to sit at home and do it?'" he said, suggesting AT&T recognizes the consumer demand for streamlined digital switching.

The in-person hearing is scheduled for December 16 in the Northern District of Texas. The outcome could set precedent for how US carriers may use automation to compete for customers.

Market Intelligence: New Research Paints Bullish Picture

Multiple research firms released eSIM market reports this week, all pointing upward.

Global eSIM Market:
ResearchAndMarkets released its "eSIM - Global Strategic Business Report" on December 10, projecting the market will grow from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $5.8 billion by 2030 at a 29.1% CAGR. The report highlights IoT expansion, smart city growth, and connected vehicles as primary drivers.

Device Shipments:
ABI Research data shows 490 million eSIM device shipments in 2024, with 544 million forecast for 2025—an 11% increase. Smartphone penetration of eSIM is expected to grow from 28.9% in 2024 to 57.7% by 2030 as manufacturers drive integration across product ranges.

Activation Rates:
Kaleido Intelligence reported to TechCrunch that eSIM activation rates reached 30% in 2024 among eSIM-capable devices, expected to climb to 75% by 2030. GSMA data shows 51% of eSIM users cite travel as their primary use case.

Embedded SIM Market:
Mordor Intelligence estimates the embedded SIM market at $11.29 billion in 2025, reaching $21.91 billion by 2030 at 14.18% CAGR. The Global Certification Forum confirms 51.7% of all smartphones certified in 2024 supported consumer Remote SIM Provisioning, up from 34.8% a year earlier.

Enterprise & IoT: SGP.32 Gains Momentum

The IoT eSIM standard continues its march toward mainstream adoption.

Digi International announced an SGP.32-compliant eSIM accessory on December 10, becoming one of the first IoT solution providers to deliver zero-touch eSIM workflows aligned with GSMA standards. The accessory supports Digi's EX, IX, and TX routers with up to eight profiles and remote carrier switching—critical for fleets, retail, and critical infrastructure deployments.

"By aligning commercial deployments with GSMA .32 standards, Digi becomes one of the first IoT solution providers to set a benchmark for interoperability and lifecycle governance in distributed networking," the company stated.

The GSMA Intelligence study cited in the announcement found that 81% of enterprises now view eSIM as essential to their IoT strategies. Juniper Research projects 4.9 billion cellular connections will use eSIMs by 2030, rising from 1.2 billion in 2025.

Travel eSIM: Provider Growth Continues

The travel eSIM segment remains the industry's most visible success story.

TechCrunch's deep-dive into eSIM adoption published December 5 revealed updated metrics from major providers:

• Holafly: Over 15 million eSIMs sold since 2018, with $500+ million in cumulative revenue
• Airalo: 20+ million users, maintaining unicorn status after July's $220 million Series C
• Truely: 70,000+ travelers served over two years with 2x order growth in 2025
• Saily: Seven-digit user base since March 2024 launch, with new $60/month Ultra global plan

Airalo CEO Bahadir Ozdemir told TechCrunch the company plays a key role in first-time eSIM education. "A lot of telecom operators offer eSIMs, but it is not easy for customers to discover those, and apps like Airalo make the process easier."

GSMA analyst Pablo Iacopino noted that travel creates a gateway to broader adoption: "People might experience eSIM for the first time while traveling. These users who like the eSIM experience would go back home and request their network providers to make a switch from a physical SIM."

Quick Takes

Samsung Galaxy Z Trifold: Set to launch in January 2026, adding to foldable momentum ahead of Apple's entry. IDC expects the device to kick-start 2026 foldable growth alongside the iPhone Fold.

China Market: Apple's eSIM-only iPhone Fold faces headwinds in mainland China where physical SIM preference remains strong. Customers still need carrier store visits for eSIM activation despite China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom support.

Latin America: eSIM adoption expected to jump from 5% of smartphone connections in 2023 to 16% by end of 2025, potentially reaching 75% by decade's end according to GSMA data.

The Week Ahead

All eyes turn to Dallas on December 16 for the AT&T vs. T-Mobile hearing. The case represents the first major US legal challenge to AI-assisted account portability tools in telecom—a significant precedent as carriers increasingly look to digital switching solutions.

Apple's iOS 26.2 release is expected between December 8-16, though no major eSIM changes are anticipated. The update follows the September launch of iOS 26 and includes incremental improvements to the iPhone experience.

With the holiday travel season in full swing, travel eSIM providers are likely seeing peak demand—setting the stage for another round of growth metrics in January.

This weekly briefing covers developments in the global eSIM industry. Sources include company press releases, regulatory filings, market research reports, and industry publications.