eSIM industry reaches inflection point as China opens doors

The global eSIM ecosystem crossed critical thresholds this fortnight, with Deutsche Telekom achieving a European first in cross-platform transfers, record investment levels signaling sector maturation, and the inaugural MWC Doha cementing MENA's emergence as a connectivity hub. Most significantly, China's full embrace of eSIM technology has added 1.7 billion mobile subscriptions to the addressable market—reshaping competitive dynamics across the entire value chain.

Cross-platform barriers finally fall

Deutsche Telekom made history on November 22 by becoming the first European operator to enable eSIM profile transfers between Android and iOS devices. Using the GSMA TS.43 entitlement configuration specification, customers can now move their eSIM profiles between iPhone (running iOS 26) and Google Pixel 10 devices directly through smartphone settings—eliminating a long-standing friction point that had locked users into single ecosystems.

The breakthrough arrives alongside Apple and Google's collaborative rollout of native cross-platform eSIM transfer features in iOS 26 and Android 16. Users can now initiate transfers via a simple "Transfer to Android" option, with the receiving device generating a QR code for seamless migration. AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Deutsche Telekom have enabled support, signaling that platform lock-in as a retention strategy may be nearing its end.

T-Mobile capitalized on this new mobility paradigm with its enhanced T-Life app, launching "Easy Switch" functionality that enables AT&T and Verizon customers to complete carrier switches in just 15 minutes—transforming what was historically a multi-day ordeal into an impulse decision. Combined with same-day device delivery via DoorDash in select cities, the move represents eSIM's most aggressive deployment as a competitive weapon in the US carrier wars.

China's entry reshapes the global market

The most consequential development of 2025 continues reverberating through the industry: China's Tier 1 operators have fully embraced eSIM technology, fundamentally altering market projections. Juniper Research's November 24 report forecasts 4.9 billion cellular connections will use eSIMs by 2030—up from 1.2 billion in 2025—with China driving much of this 300% growth despite having fewer than 1 million eSIM smartphones at year's end. The firm projects Chinese eSIM smartphone adoption will surge to 364 million units by 2030.

Apple's iPhone Air—launched in October as the first eSIM iPhone in China at 7,999 yuan ($1,100)—exemplifies this shift. Supporting up to two eSIMs with no physical SIM tray, it enables Apple to sell a unified global model rather than China-specific variants. China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom all support eSIM activation, though mandatory in-person identity verification creates friction that vendors must address with bespoke solutions.

Travel eSIM market explodes ahead of holiday season

The consumer travel eSIM segment demonstrated remarkable momentum heading into the holiday period. Juniper Research valued the market at $1.8 billion in 2025—an 85% increase from $989 million in 2024—projecting expansion to $8.7 billion by 2030. Counterpoint Research data indicates third-party travel eSIM downloads will grow nearly 3x between 2025 and 2030, with travel eSIMs costing roughly half as much as traditional roaming while delivering double the data.

Holafly's Global eSIM & Travel Report 2025-2026 revealed that 17% of global travelers have now adopted eSIMs, rising to 25% among travelers under 44. Only 3% of travelers remain completely offline during trips, with nine in ten considering internet access essential—a behavioral shift driving sustained demand.

Vodafone's June-launched Travel eSIM product—covering 206 destinations on 700 networks with 5G in 98 countries—continued expanding through partnerships with Uber One and UEFA Champions League, signaling major operators' recognition that travel eSIM revenue represents a significant competitive battleground.

IoT and enterprise eSIM advances on SGP.32 foundation

Enterprise connectivity took substantial steps forward with AT&T and Thales's SGP.32-based eSIM solution announcement, part of AT&T Virtual Profile Management for IoT. Powered by Thales Adaptive Connect, the solution targets automotive, smart cities, healthcare, and utilities deployments with advanced automation for subscription switching, fleet rules updates, and connectivity policy management—entirely over-the-air.

M2M One launched Australia's first carrier-grade IoT eSIM service on the Telstra network on November 28, managing connectivity for over 850,000 machines and devices across aged care, logistics, and agriculture sectors. The deployment supports 4G/5G, LTE-M, and NB-IoT networks with Band 28 coverage addressing Australia's rural connectivity challenges.

Kigen secured a landmark utility contract with Evergy—serving 1.7 million customers across Kansas and Missouri—deploying its secure eSIM OS and eIM (eSIM IoT Manager) to unify private LTE and public networks. The implementation targets grid resiliency for severe weather events and distributed energy resource integration, demonstrating eSIM's expanding role in critical infrastructure.

The smart meter sector emerged as a particularly promising vertical. Kigen's November 24 report projects smart meter deployments will reach 3 billion globally by 2030, with SGP.32 enabling automated profile switching essential for power-constrained devices with 10-20 year lifecycles. ABI Research forecasts 2.9 million SGP.32 profile downloads in 2025, growing to 194 million by 2029.

Device ecosystem expands eSIM-only momentum

The device landscape continued its decisive shift toward eSIM-first design. GSMArena testing revealed iPhone 17 Pro eSIM-only variants deliver 5.3% better Active Use Scores versus physical SIM versions, with Apple utilizing the freed space for larger batteries. Web browsing improved by over an hour (13h 41min versus 12h+ for SIM tray versions), creating tangible user benefits beyond connectivity flexibility.

November saw multiple flagship launches embracing eSIM: OnePlus 15 (global November 9), Oppo Find X9/X9 Pro (November 18), Realme GT 8 Pro (November 20), and iQOO 15 (November 26)—all featuring Snapdragon 8 Elite or MediaTek Dimensity 9500 processors with full eSIM support. At the budget tier, Cricket Wireless introduced the Icon 2026 with dual-SIM via eSIM and 5G Standalone support, democratizing the technology across price segments.

Xiaomi announced a new smartwatch featuring an independent eSIM module with dedicated eUICC chip and 930mAh battery, enabling true standalone communication—continuing the wearable category's march toward phone-free operation that Apple Watch and Samsung Galaxy Watch pioneered.

Samsung maintains its position as the leading eSIM OEM with 40 compatible models, followed by Apple (29 models) and Motorola (28 models). The total eSIM-compatible smartphone model count grew 33% year-over-year to 226 models as of April 2025.

Regulatory landscape shapes competitive dynamics

Regulatory developments continue influencing eSIM adoption trajectories globally. The FCC's November 21 vote reversing telecom cybersecurity rules enacted under the Biden administration raised concerns about potential weakening of carrier network security requirements protecting eSIM provisioning systems. Commissioner Anna Gomez dissented from the 2-1 decision.

In Europe, BEREC's March 2025 opinion on EU Roaming Regulation review proposed clearer frameworks for IoT, M2M, and connected car services, alongside calls for lowering wholesale caps and addressing MVNO challenges. The European Commission's Digital Markets Act implementation continues, with Apple required to provide iOS connectivity feature interoperability by June 2026.

The 2G/3G sunset accelerates worldwide: 278 operators in 83 countries have completed, planned, or are implementing shutdowns. The UK government mandates 3G closure by end of 2025 and 2G by 2033, driving migration to LTE-M, NB-IoT, and 5G-compatible eSIM modules for IoT deployments in smart meters, vehicle telematics, and industrial applications.

Australia's ACCC maintains a "close watching brief" on eSIM, expressing concern about potential competition reduction if MVNO access to eSIMs remains delayed. Indonesia implemented comprehensive eSIM regulations (Permenkomdigi No. 7/2025) requiring biometric verification and data security certification for provisioning systems.

Market research paints bullish picture

Multiple research houses released updated forecasts confirming eSIM's growth trajectory. Counterpoint Research projects over 9 billion xSIM-capable devices will ship cumulatively by 2030, representing 22% compound annual growth from 2024. The firm expects 70% of all cellular devices shipped in 2030 will be eSIM or iSIM-capable, with iSIM-capable devices growing at an extraordinary 160% CAGR.

GSMA Intelligence reports consumer eSIM awareness has doubled from 25% to 50% over two years, with H1 2025 recording a record $302 million in eSIM investor funding. Over two-thirds of mobile network operators globally have launched eSIM connectivity for smartphones.

ABI Research documented 544 million eSIM device shipments forecast for 2025 (11% increase over 2024's 490 million), with smartphones constituting 74% of shipments. Global eSIM smartphone penetration reached 28.9% in 2024, projected to hit 57.7% by 2030.

MWC Doha marks MENA's connectivity moment

The inaugural MWC25 Doha (November 25-26) represented the GSMA's strategic expansion into the Middle East and North Africa region, launching a five-year partnership with Qatar's Ministry of Communications and Information Technology. Over 250 exhibitors and nearly 300 speakers convened around themes of AI Nexus, Intelligent Economies, and Connected Industries.

The event's 4YFN startup showcase featured over 100 regional and international startups including 40 Qatari ventures, aligned with Qatar's Digital Agenda 2030. The timing reinforced MENA's position as an emerging connectivity hub, particularly relevant given the region's strong travel eSIM adoption rates and digital transformation ambitions.

Standards progress enables scale

GSMA specification development continued apace with SGP.22 v2.6.1 released in April 2025, while SGP.32 v1.2 advances through commercial implementation. Testing tool vendors COMPRION and eUICC Profile Manager integrated SGP.32 support, enabling broader vendor certification.

The Trusted Connectivity Alliance released eUICC Profile Package Technical Specification v3.4 in April 2025, achieving full alignment with 3GPP Release 18 and introducing support for Slice SIM (SSIM) for 5G network slicing security—essential for enterprise deployments requiring dedicated network resources.

eSIM Go joined GSMA as an industry member, expanding its digital ecosystem coverage to 1,000+ networks across 190+ countries including 250 5G networks. The GSMA also launched its Entitlements service in partnership with NetLync, providing cloud-based managed entitlement compliance designed for the eSIM-only device era.

Conclusion

The November 14-28 fortnight crystallized several defining trends: eSIM technology has crossed from novelty to necessity, with cross-platform interoperability eliminating the last major friction barriers. China's market entry adds transformational scale, while the travel eSIM segment's sustained growth demonstrates compelling consumer value propositions. Enterprise adoption accelerates on SGP.32 foundations, and device manufacturers increasingly treat eSIM-only design as a feature rather than limitation—offering tangible benefits like extended battery life. With record investment levels, maturing standards, and global regulatory frameworks taking shape, the industry consensus that 2025-2026 represents an inflection point appears well-founded.